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We have already seen the drought footprint across the country shift since La Niña faded , and we will continue to see drought as an issue for the Southern Plains , Midwest and Pacific Northwest this fall . Of those regions , the Southern Plains are most likely to reverse the trend and see moisture . However , drought grows from the Pacific Northwest toward the Northern Plains
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fall but will improve as moisture increases this winter and next spring ; the area will be favorable for wheat and surface water supplies . For the Northern Plains through the Corn Belt , it is likely drier than average , with periods of drought continuing throughout the period . The Pacific Northwest will have drought growth throughout the period , too ; snowpack will be lower than normal from the Cascades to the Northern Rockies , and this is likely to impact rivers for next spring — particularly the Missouri Basin into the Central and Northern Mississippi .
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and Upper Midwest . The Corn Belt continues to see hit-andmiss precipitation this fall and may continue to see drought throughout the winter based on the current El Niño strength projections .
The ultimate strength of this El Niño can shift this pattern and my expectations , but as we get closer to the start of winter the “ wiggle room ” has diminished , and we are likely in a strong event for several months . Now , strength is a lesser consideration ; it has become more a question of how long this event will last .
Here are some key takeaways as we go through the winter :
• Temperatures — Hot , fall temperatures will moderate for the South and turn cooler than average by the winter . Warmerthan-average temperatures will shift toward the northern states for the winter , especially the Pacific Northwest . Threats to spring calving and emerging wheat will be highest for the Central to Southern Plains , where El Niño increases the impact of cold and snow / moisture . Fewer snows and milder temperatures are more typical for the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes .
• Moisture — Drought will continue across the South in the
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