THE SNEAKY BARRIER TO HERD EXPANSION: BIG COWS
By Don Close Senior Animal Protein Analyst, Terrain
Over the past 18 months, the industry has been consumed with cow slaughter and the lack of heifer retention. We have talked about what’ s holding back the expansion of female breeding herds: impacts of drought, the average age of cow owners, and producers’ intent to de-leverage balance sheets before expanding. And all those issues are correct. At the same time, I believe there is a huge factor that has been overlooked: the escalation in cow size in the past 25 years and the impact it has had on U. S. pasture conditions. Quantifying a Visible Trend
To the best of my knowledge, there is no reportable source of average live cow weights. We can get snap shots of weights from auction reports and anecdotal input of average cow weights directly from producers. But there is so much variability in cow size seasonally and regionally that no hard number is available.
The best I and my Terrain colleagues can do is take cow carcass weights from the Livestock Slaughter report, calculate an average carcass yield, and estimate what live weights are. Invariably, there is slippage in this calculation. Most of those cows are old, many times stressed and out of condition. The calculation will give us a number lower than the herd average live weight.
Using this methodology, however, Terrain finds cow carcass weights during the past 25 years have increased by 18 % from a low of 564 lbs to a current weight of 667 lbs. If we use an estimated red meat yield of 55 %, we get an estimated live weight of 1,003 lbs in 1999 and an estimated average weight today of 1,212 lbs. We then add 100 lbs to offset poor body condition scores and get an estimated 1,103-lb average weight during 1999, compared with a 1,312-lb live weight estimate today.
Heavier Cows Have Snuck into Herds
Cow-calf operations have built herds of bigger cows inadvertently by focusing on maternal growth traits. And they’ ve been challenged by the additional forage requirements, perhaps unknowingly.
For example, ranches selecting for heavier average weaning weights are really selecting for more milk production from their cows. More milk production demands higher energy requirements. Whether ranchers are planning for it or not, their cows are likely eating more if they’ re weaning larger calves. Big Cows May Be Hindering Expansion
It is my opinion that when producers are trying to run the same number of cows they did 25 years ago on the same grazing area, they simply do not have the grass to be able to add additional females to the herd.
There is no doubt that, in recent years, the majority of cowcalf regions have spent more time than not under some level of drought stress. Add the grazing requirement of trying to run the same number of females per grazing unit, and the result is overgrazed ranges and pastures. As a result, when ranch lands have received moisture, the grass hasn’ t been able to fully recuperate at the same pace it has historically.
Producers simply haven’ t had the additional grass on their existing operations to consider herd expansion without also expanding grazing acres, which could make expansion more costly and difficult.
Terrain is a team of economists who provide expert analysis to the customers of American AgCredit, Farm Credit Services of America and Frontier Farm Credit. Find more at Terrainag. com.
14 APRIL 2025 www. NCBA. org