WEATHER UPDATE
Perhaps you have heard of the PDO( Pacific Decadal Oscillation) or the AMO( Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation)— recall, this was part of my presentation at this year’ s CattleFax Outlook Session during CattleCon. The placement of warmer and colder ocean areas determines the PDO and AMO, and therefore, their impact across the nation. For example, the PDO greatly influences the Central to Southern Plains and can add to or take away from El Niño and La Niña’ s effects. Returning to the last El Niño event of‘ 23-‘ 24, the PDO’ s influence was to minimize the precipitation that would classically accompany such an event. Since the 1990s, the PDO has been mostly stuck in a phase that adds to drought. The AMO has also been in a phase that promotes drought more frequently than moisture.
The phases of PDO and AMO are unlike El Niño and La Niña in how long they last. El Niño and La Niña phases vary on a scale of one to three years, the PDO changes far less frequently, and the AMO operates on periods of several decades. The AMO has been in its current phase since the late 1990s. Since then, we have had a lot more La Niña events, and the PDO has also primarily been in a drought-producing phase. So, in the past 25 years, we have been handed major global patterns that induce drought much more frequently across North America. If history repeats itself, the AMO and PDO may flip phases to one that gives us more frequent moisture in the years ahead, but the change is not imminent and will take time to develop.
Until we see such a significant change, we can hope to find a few good years when El Niño sets in with a warm PDO. The last time this occurred substantially was in 2015 to 2016, which was leading into our last herd rebuild which kicked in by 2018. Further, albeit not the perfect setup, the’ 23-’ 24 El Niño event and other factors did help produce enough widespread moisture for a big hay crop and subsequently lower prices. Holding on to cheaper hay was recommended, knowing the drought would make a quick return, as it has. For 2025 into 2026, data does not suggest much of a probability for El Niño, let alone a favorable configuration from the other influencers.
Other global features further impact the connection between El Niño and La Niña, PDO and AMO, but those are typically on short time scales, such as weeks. Take November 2024, for example. An incredibly wet system passed over Oklahoma and Kansas, which delivered the moisture needed to get wheat off to a strong start amidst months of dry weather. Considering the global patterns at the time, this was a tremendous singularity which offset their drought and gave operators something to graze.
Looking into the future, we will need more of these one-off, moisture-laden systems to be well-timed for grass and forage health. Depending on heifer retention and herd growth during the next couple of years, they will likely coincide with drought, barring a significant shift of these global patterns.
The next time you hear El Niño and La Niña, PDO and AMO, remember the beef industry can benefit most from El Niño and a warm-phased PDO. Sadly, those are the two things you will not likely hear this year. So for now, we wait for perfectly timed moisture.
References 1. References to drought severity here are based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index( PDSI) values for May, with a record of 1895 to 2024, retrieved from NOAA’ s National Centers for Environmental Information. www. NCBA. org NATIONAL CATTLEMEN 17