GLOBAL BEEF OUTLOOK 2026
MARKET UPDATE
By Troy Bockelmann, Analyst CattleFax
As cattle slaughter in the U. S. continues to move lower, and beef imports have risen the last several years, the U. S. market has been more dependent on global supplies. Since 2020, global beef production has increased 7 % or 9.5 billion lbs, reaching a peak in 2025. According to the USDA Foreign Ag Service( FAS) Production Supply and Distribution data, 2026 is forecasted to have the first decrease in production since 2020. This could play a role in both imports and exports for the U. S. Domestically, beef production is forecast to decrease by 1 % or 220 million lbs.
Starting with export potential, beef production in China is expected to decrease 3 % or 500 million lbs in 2026. As the largest beef importer in the world, could this support exports in 2026? China completed the import safeguard investigation and now has set tariff rate quota( TRQ) import limits. Brazil was the largest supplier of beef to China and will be limited by the TRQ by nearly 800 million lbs compared to 2025 levels. This should leave room for the U. S., which also has a TRQ of 360 million lbs. Unfortunately, most of the U. S. plants are delisted for exports to China. Should this change, there will be potential for the U. S. to regain access to China.
Which then leads to imports; 2025 was a volatile year for imports from Brazil. Brazil is part of the“ Others” category in the U. S. beef TRQ. This was filled in January, and tariffs went
to 26.4 %. Then in April, an additional 10 % tariff was placed on Brazil with an additional 40 % added in August. The 50 % additional tariff was later removed in November. The USDA FAS is forecasting a 5 %, or 1.43 billion lbs decrease in beef production in Brazil for 2026. While it remains to be seen if production will drop that much, the TRQ in China and the normal TRQ rate of 26.4 % coming into the U. S. leaves potential for more Brazilian product to come stateside. Adding to the complexity of global dynamics is Mexico. With the Mexican border still closed due to New World Screwworm, more cattle are being fed and harvested in Mexico. This has led to an increase in U. S. beef imports from Mexico in the fourth quarter of 2025. Beef production in Mexico is expected to increase 5 % in 2026 or roughly 220 million lbs.
Another main supplier of beef into the U. S. but also a competitor for exports into China, Japan and South Korea is Australia. Beef production“ down under” is not expected to change significantly in 2026, producing 6.32 billion lbs.
Bottom Line: The complexity of global beef production and trade continues to grow in 2026. While global beef production is expected to decrease, driven by the expectation of smaller production in Brazil and the U. S., China’ s import TRQ could shift the dynamics of global trade.
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