WHY THIS EL NIÑO IS NOT LIKE THE PAST STRONGEST
WEATHER UPDATE
By Matt Makens Atmospheric Scientist
You have probably seen the headlines: a“ Super El Niño” is building in the Pacific, and comparisons to past events are already flying. That is fair; we often compare incoming weather events to those ingrained in memory. Years 1982-1983, 1997- 1998, and 2015-2016 are the three strongest El Niños recorded in the modern era, and this one could challenge them in some ways. But here is what those headlines usually skip: no two El Niños are the same event … ever. Those differences matter far more than the headlines suggest, especially when trying to understand what this winter may bring and what that could mean for your heifer retention and feed plans for 2027.
El Niño, by textbook, is a periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean along the equator; its strength is based on how warm it is. When it sets up, it reshapes both the jet stream and storm track across North America, which is why a strong El Niño usually means a wetter Southwest and a drier Pacific Northwest. But“ strong” is not the whole story. The pace of warming, the depth of subsurface heat, and other slowmoving ocean patterns all shape how a given El Niño delivers its impacts. Two events can look similar in the official ENSO region and still produce very different outcomes.
So where does 2026 sit? On raw intensity, this one is developing fast; recent warming is tracking almost exactly with 1997 at this same point in the year. And when you look at the heat reserve strengthening the event below the surface( the“ fuel tank” through the ocean depths), the match gets even more specific: the latest reading puts 2026 essentially identical to where 1997 stood at this stage.
Those are the kind of numbers that make the“ here we go again” headlines write themselves. The 1997-1998 event is the one many Southwestern producers still remember by name; it broke droughts, filled reservoirs, and produced one of the most dramatic single-season rainfall responses the region has seen. If 2026 is tracking 1997’ s pace this closely, shouldn’ t we expect a repeat? The issue is that El Niño does not operate alone. A slowermoving pattern of North Pacific Ocean temperatures, the PDO, historically helps determine how far El Niño impacts reach across the Southwest. When that background pattern is“ warm”( positive), it tends to amplify El Niño. When it is“ cool”( negative), it acts more like a brake. In every one of the three strongest El Niños on record, that factor tilted in El Niño’ s favor. Right now, 2026 remains to be seen but it will likely remain in its cold phase,
which could reduce the total impact for the Southwest and Plains. That combination— a fast, strong El Niño paired with a likely negative PDO, does not have a clean analog in this comparison. In practical terms, the raw intensity numbers say this could rival 1997, but the offsetting factors say not to rely on the same mechanics. A more active, wetter pattern across the Southwest and Southern Rockies is still reasonable because the core El Niño signal is real and building fast. But the drought-busting, reservoirfilling event that defined 1997 leaned on an extra amplifier that may be missing this year. Meanwhile, a similar slow-cycling pattern in the Atlantic Ocean, the AMO, is aligning more closely with 2015-2016, which was still strong and impactful across much of the northern tier, but more measured for the Southwest than in 1997, with only partial drought recovery.
So, which one is 2026 really? Based on where things stand right now, the honest answer is neither. It is borrowing pieces from different years rather than repeating one of them, which also means the biggest swings this winter might show up farther north than most people expect, rather than concentrated in the Southwest as the“ Super El Niño” headlines imply.
That is not satisfying if you want a single historical year to point to. But it is more useful. The strongest El Niños on record did not all behave the same way, and treating this one as an automatic repeat of any single year, even the one it resembles most on paper, is exactly the kind of shortcut that leaves people unprepared. Watch the specifics, not just the“ strongest since” label attached to the headline.
Another factor is that the entire ocean system is much warmer today than during any of the other strongest El Niños. That can increase the water vapor available to stream into the U. S., so do not read this as saying winter will be a bust because it is not like 1997 or 2015. If it does repeat the previous big events, it will be for different reasons. I get it, the forecast and result are what matter to producers, not the mechanics, but the context matters behind the headlines we are seeing.
All of this allows me to couch some uncertainty in October through March’ s outlook. The southwestern U. S. and Central Plains present the greatest uncertainty at this time. Keep that in the back of your mind as you look at the moisture probability maps. The maps here show the chance of above-average precipitation for two periods— October to December and January to March.
10 AUGUST 2026 www. NCBA. org