LONG FED CATTLE AND HEAT STRESS AND EL NIÑO
MARKET UPDATE
By Shawn Walter, First Look Data Manager CattleFax
Late-day death losses have become more common in the past 10 years and much of that has to do simply with increased days on feed as long fed cattle are simply exposed to more risk factors including injury, organ failure, heat stress and others. Stacking risk factors such as heat stress with extreme heavy weights just adds to the likelihood of late-day death losses.
The monthly late-day death loss chart from the CattleFax First Look database illustrates the strong seasonal tendency for extremes in late-day death losses. Many of most extreme heat stress events in the last 10 years came from 2022-2024 including June 2022 and July 2024( southwest Kansas), July 2020 and 2022 in Hereford, Texas, and August 2023 in Lincoln, Nebraska. Those weather events all corresponded with increased levels of death losses— which is the easiest health factor to identify in the data. These periods of stress limit feed intake, cattle gains and efficiency, and increase stressors that can result in sickness and death later during the feeding period.
Two extreme heat stress events were charted this summer: June 26-July 1 in Garden City, Kansas, with a peak THI( Total Humidity Index) of 82.4 which put it in the“ danger” level, and in Lincoln from June 26-July 1 with a peak THI of 85.1 which is an“ emergency” level event.
Risk of high late-day death losses are compounded this year with record-high days on feed. While this number is not as evident in the overall average days on feed data, drilling down by placement weight group shows the trend is significant. On average, seven-weight steers were on feed a full two weeks over the five-year average during the first half of 2026 and one full week over an already elevated level in 2025. Late-day death losses were record high for January through March of 2026 and
extended days on feed was the primary risk factor. Days on feed set a record-high level for seven-weight steers in June 2026 with the likelihood of breaking that record fairly certain in the coming months. This should put feedyard management needs to be on high alert for heat stress events this summer.
Furthermore, the shift into a strong El Niño weather pattern will likely increase the risk of extreme events this summer. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center projects above-normal temperatures across the West through the Central Plains through the summer with drought developing across the Northern Plains. More importantly, the forecast also indicates increased levels of gulf moisture and storms which shifts the Southwest cattle feeding regions( Hereford to Garden City) toward humidity-loaded THI and poor overnight recovery periods that are more common in the Cornbelt regions, increasing heat stress related death losses in the Central and Southern Plains but possibly lessening the risk of heat stress related death losses further north and east.
Bottom line: The odds are against cattle feeders for the next 60-90 days when it comes to late-day death loss risk. www. NCBA. org NATIONAL CATTLEMEN 13