WEATHER UPDATE
weight to those weather forecasts were those which flirted with La Niña but never became super strong events . There is little to change that thinking at this point .
Speaking of winter , we commonly think of La Niña patterns delivering snow to the northern U . S ., but what does it mean to have a neutral or weak La Niña ? Just like precipitation totals , snowfall varies from season to season based on the pattern ’ s strength . Here is an image to visualize how snowfall has historically panned out in similar patterns .
The data for Image 2 is based on a record starting from 1950 . All years fitting our current weather pattern were averaged and compared to the 30-year average . During these kinds of seasons , you can see a disorganized focus of heavier snowfall than normal ( blue shades ). Historically , parts of the mountainous West , Central to Northern Plains , and Midwest have snowier winters . Many of the mountain ranges historically have below-average snowfall ( red shades ).
For comparison , Image 3 uses the same dataset but only the strong La Niña years . Note a clear focus on heavy snowfall for the northern states compared to this season ’ s outlook .
In summary , while a definitive La Niña pattern has not yet developed , even a neutral event has a history of developing drought for much of the country . These weaker scenarios lack a clear focus on where to place moisture including snowfall . In beef regions during these setups , the southern U . S ., especially the Southwest toward the Central and Southern Plains , are frequently drier than average in winter . Clearly , this can exacerbate the drought here ( for what it is worth , there are strong probabilities in data showing a strong monsoon for next summer ). Northward from the Central Plains , a colder and wetter winter is expected compared to last year . For the far West , however , the correlation between winter precipitation and La Niña / El Niño is low . By and large , this region is subject to smaller-scale features that are a driving force behind Atmospheric River events , and in this year ’ s case , it appears most of that moisture will be scattered from Northern California to Oregon and Washington .
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