By Matt Makens Atmospheric Scientist
WEATHER UPDATE
THE THREAT OF COLD WEATHER
Last month , much of the country was hit with extremely cold weather and it was problematic for many . Sure , winter comes with threats of cold , it is winter , after all , but some patterns can create more frequent cold snaps and increase the risk for winter-time losses .
One key difference between El Niño and La Niña phases , generally speaking , is the broad threat of cold weather shifts from northern states to southern ones during El Niño . So , during El Niño events , like currently , the odds of extreme cold increase for the Central and Southern Plains to the Southeastern U . S . This is especially true from February through April . If you are spring calving somewhere between New Mexico and Texas to the East Coast , you are in an area with a much higher risk of getting abnormally cold and wet conditions than in an “ average ” year . An analysis by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ) indicates these areas are 90 % more likely to have cold extremes during El Niño events .
If we change the weather pattern to a La Niña , those temperature extremes “ flip ” places . From February through April , the Pacific Northwest , Northern Plains / Upper Midwest , and New England states have the highest risk of extreme cold .
El Niño and La Niña patterns tip the scales but it is much more than that — other phenomena add the real weight .
One mechanism ( many others but let us stick to this one ) that has become overly popular in today ’ s media is the “ Polar Vortex .” This is often a misused term , but it is a real meteorological phenomenon which I watch closely during winter . This is a feature existing well into the atmosphere around the North Pole . During the cold months , I monitor this area to see if it wants to behave normally or is about to “ misbehave .” We can anticipate changes at ground level right in our pastures depending on when and how the Polar Vortex changes .
So , we have a Polar Vortex ( among other features ) which can make things quite unsettled , but where does the cold air come from ? As we go through the fall months and into winter , naturally , ice grows on the Arctic ’ s many seas , and snowpack increases in cold regions like Siberia . This begins to generate colder air masses .
When something like the Polar Vortex changes , we watch all that cold air from the Arctic come flooding down into the States .
We saw that just last month when the second to third weeks of January recorded frigid temperatures drifting from Siberia toward Alaska into Canada and right down into the country . This is all because the atmosphere found a way to shift , grab the cold , and push it our way . This can happen multiple times a winter , but we tend to see increased odds of extreme cold events from later January through April because there is much more snow and ice that has developed by that point to be the source of the cold .
So , how do we prepare for these outbreaks ?
First , we turn to the climatology discussed above . We can go into a season knowing the scales are tipping warmer or colder for us . For what is left of this winter , we have increased the odds of colder extremes for producers in the southern states . Not to say cold cannot hit us all , but the odds historically show higher chances for extreme events to the south . Meanwhile , I anticipate La Niña during next winter ( 2024-2025 ), and just based on that , I know history is giving producers higher odds of cold extremes in the northern states .
Second , and on a much more near-term basis , we have the Polar Vortex and other circulations driving cold to or away from us . Meteorologists can see these behaviors developing well ahead of an event , sometimes several weeks in advance . You ’ ll be able to find ample warnings about these outbreaks from the weather I provide to you during “ Cattlemen to Cattlemen ” episodes on RFD-TV or posted to the YouTube page . Plus , I provide a lot of early warning on the NCBA social media channels .
As we saw in January , we continue to have risks of cold weather outbreaks this season . You have gathered that the highest risks are for those in the Central to Southern Plains and Southeastern U . S ., but we all can be hit with the cold . In the near-term , check the resources listed above to stay as prepared as possible for winter weather threats coming your way .
20 NATIONAL CATTLEMEN www . NCBA . org