EL NIÑO’ S PROBABILITY INCREASES
WEATHER UPDATE
By Matt Makens Atmospheric Scientist
If you’ ve been following weather headlines, you’ ve probably seen bold predictions about El Niño arriving to end drought concerns. The reality is more nuanced and less certain. Recall that La Niña is the drought instigator across much of the U. S. and El Niño can be the drought reducer.
If you missed the CattleFax Outlook Session at CattleCon, here’ s the latest: the Central Pacific Ocean area( home of El Niño and La Niña, called ENSO) will warm through spring. This warming creates atmospheric ripple effects. Steady warming puts us on the path toward El Niño, which typically creates wetter conditions, though regionally and seasonally variable, drought is classically much lower during these events.
The speed of development will dictate how quickly precipitation patterns change. The recent La Niña contributed to drought across much of the central and eastern U. S. These areas can see relief as ocean conditions shift, though the atmosphere may take a month to several months to respond to Pacific sea surface changes.
By the numbers, spring sea surface temperatures in our ENSO region most probably align with a Neutral phase. By
Image 1
summer, El Niño odds increase but remain below 40 %. By fall, historical-analysis odds increase to greater than 60 %, a moderately strong consensus for how far out this event is. Forward-looking computer models also indicate El Niño becomes probable. How this plays out depends on how quickly sea surface temperatures shift and how long the atmosphere takes to respond. A similar situation occurred during 2023.
No two years are identical, so I prefer looking at similar historical years. An ENSO-Neutral summer differs considerably from an El Niño. I’ m giving a side-by-side comparison in Image 1 based on events since 1990. Note: although associated with wet patterns, El Niño can increase drought odds in parts of the central U. S., centered on corn country. We observed this in 2023 as drought grew throughout summer for much of the central and northern Corn Belt, while western U. S. drought was significantly reduced. For Southern Plains and Southwest producers, El Niño historically brings better summer moisture odds, while Northern Plains producers may see more variable patterns. Depending on your location, you may hope for a slower or faster transition.
Regional differences between possible ENSO phases become clearer by fall based on similar past events. Yet, discussing fall
now is premature. Many signs point toward El Niño, but it’ s too early to lock it in or predict strength, which affects regional moisture patterns. This uncertainty stems partly from timing, but specifically from the spring-predictability barrier affecting El Niño and La Niña forecasts.
Winter into early spring is when weather models struggle with long-term climate patterns tied to tropical oceans. The reliability of El Niño and La Niña forecasts is challenged by what’ s known as the Spring Predictability Barrier( SPB).
Long-range forecast models from multiple global weather agencies collect real-world data when they initialize, then project several months ahead. Real-world central Pacific observations taken during winter and early spring can limit prediction accuracy looking forward.
Following a relatively stationary winter pattern, spring brings shifts as warm- and cold-water pools move around. This transitional period reveals clues about how the ocean may set up for the year ahead: neutral or perhaps El Niño.
Climate models struggle before seeing real-world transition data. Some models favor persistence, assuming current conditions continue. Others predict the transition based on ocean-atmosphere factors. Like predicting a football game’ s outcome: it’ s hard before kickoff, but during the game we see how the field plays and can better predict the winner. Climate models need to see the transition before achieving accurate solutions.
With the transition occurring in spring, it’ s a waiting game as we sit in February. Climate model accuracy forecasting ENSO phases grows dramatically from April to May and again into June. Models perform better observing changes versus guessing before transitions begin, like our football analogy; third-quarter game predictions are more accurate than second-quarter ones.
This spring barrier is why I extensively use historical data. History has already shown how transitions behave, we don’ t wait until halftime. History gives the heaviest odds toward ENSO-Neutral spring and early summer, with El Niño developing later this year. The transition speed will determine how quickly your local moisture patterns shift.
The way precipitation started this year may completely flip by year’ s end for many of us. I’ ll monitor conditions and provide updates through NCBA outlets so you can make well-informed management decisions based on developing El Niño forecasts.
18 FEBRUARY 2026 www. NCBA. org