WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR 2026: WHAT TO KNOW
By Matt Makens Atmospheric Scientist
As we head into 2026, understanding the weather patterns that will shape your grazing season and forage production is more important than ever; we may see the weather pattern make a flip throughout the year. At our upcoming February conference, I’ ll dive into these climate patterns and what they mean for operations across the country. Here’ s a preview of what to be watching. The Big Picture: ENSO Takes Center Stage It starts with our favorite terms, El Niño and La Niña, and for good reason. These patterns in the Pacific Ocean have outsized influence on our weather. Right now, we’ re looking at ENSOneutral to weak La Niña conditions persisting through early 2026, and the primary impact on how our growing seasons will start in the spring.
What does that mean for your operation? Historically, both ENSO-neutral and La Niña phases increase drought risk for the southern U. S. and Central Plains. If you’ re running cattle in these regions, the first half of 2026 looks like the critical period to watch. Northern operations, on the other hand, typically see better odds of moisture during these patterns.
That covers only the very beginning of the year. From here, things may get“ interesting.” Timing Matters: First Half vs. Second Half The weather story for 2026 really breaks into two chapters. Based on current data, there’ s only about a 5-10 % chance we’ ll see a moderate to strong La Niña develop to start the year.
The weaker the La Niña signal, the more variable our weather outcomes become, especially from the Central to Southern Plains, which makes planning that much more challenging and the weather you experience during the start of the year can be highly volatile.
Here’ s where it gets interesting: historical patterns similar to what we’ re seeing today suggest a transition as the year progresses. Most analogous years moved from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions during spring, stayed neutral through summer, then shifted toward El Niño by late year. Computer models that extend into the back half of 2026 are showing a similar trend. During CattleCon, I’ ll have the latest probabilities to share with you during the CattleFax Outlook Seminar, but as of this writing, El Niño has a greater than 50 % chance of showing up later in 2026. Let’ s see how that may shift between now and our meetings.
If El Niño does develop in the second half of the year, we’ d expect a flip in the weather pattern. El Niño typically brings wetter conditions to southern regions while increasing drought risk up north, essentially the opposite of what La Niña delivers.
14 JANUARY 2026 www. NCBA. org