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Still , using soil moisture as an indicator of summer conditions can be an element for consideration if used appropriately . In short-term outlooks , the soil moisture to temperature outlooks has higher skill . For longer outlooks , the skill of that forecast drops . Part of this comes from the assumption that the weather pattern in spring , making soils wet or dry , naturally continues unchanged through summer , a big assumption to make when we know how quickly soil can dry under the right conditions .
Naturally , our spring moisture pattern will not remain , so the next step we will take is to look at how the precipitation pattern may shift during summer . In this year ’ s case :
We see the moisture across the South and Southeast gradually shift northward to end the season over the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Midwest / Upper Midwest and Great Lakes ( partially seasonal change , but also growing influence of La Niña ).
The Gulf Coast states are more likely to get hit with a tropical system this year ( La Niña increases the odds ), which can offset the otherwise drier outlook .
We will see a weak monsoon for the southwestern U . S . and Mexico ( which happens in similar transitions from El Niño to La Niña ).
I mentioned that thing , “ La Niña ,” several times in those bullet points , didn ’ t I ?!
The situation is the elephant in the room — a developing La Niña . The quick summary is our recent El Niño has faded , and we are awaiting the arrival of La Niña .
Through May , El Niño weakened , and we entered neutral
conditions . This means a large area of the Pacific Ocean near the equator has cooled off to near its average temperature . We create a chain reaction changing the global weather pattern by cooling this ocean area . As sea surface conditions here continue to cool below average this summer and fall , we will see a La Niña pattern develop within a few months of now and last until next year , at least .
In the near term , the transition to La Niña will impact the timing and location of summer precipitation and increase the risk of hurricanes / tropical cyclones in the U . S . In the long term , plan on a colder and wetter winter across the northern U . S . Meanwhile , a hotter winter with drought for the southern U . S . is synonymous with La Niña .
Since we are focused on summer in this National Cattlemen , let us look at this summer ’ s outlook . Factors considered for this forecast ( an “ analog ,” history-based forecast ) include years with similar soil moisture / drought across North America , snowpack in the U . S . and Canadian mountain ranges , sea surface temperatures , and atmospheric patterns shifting away from El Niño toward La Niña .
Notice the cooler areas ( Figure 1 ) tied to areas with surplus soil moisture ( Figure 2 ) from the spring , the increased drought with weak monsoon for the West / Southwest , and the chances for tropical moisture across the Gulf Coast .
The bigger impact from La Niña arrives during the colder months , and we will focus on that outlook in future articles .
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