As of early February, the Western U. S. snowpack hit levels among the lowest in the satellite record. On Feb. 1, snow cover was sitting at just 139,322 square miles. To put that in perspective, that is the lowest Feb. 1 snow coverage since that particular dataset began in 2001.
In Colorado, the situation is particularly stark. We are looking at the worst snowpack since at least 1987 based on the automated measurement SNOTEL data. If you talk to those who remember the brutal winters of 1976-1977 or 1980-1981, they will tell you this feels eerily similar. At eight different Colorado locations with more than 50 years of data, 2026 just set the record for the lowest Feb. 1 snowpack ever recorded.
We did not just have a dry January; we had a“ thirsty” one. Many states saw 50 % or less of their normal precipitation, but the real kicker was the warmth. Colorado just came off its warmest December in 130 years of record-keeping.
What little snow did fall often did not stay. Between the unseasonable heat( one of hottest water years to date on record for most of the West) and the constant sunshine, the atmosphere essentially acted like a giant sponge, sucking moisture right out of the snowpack before it could even melt.
There is an important distinction to make: a bad snowpack does not always mean a dry water year. In some basins, we actually have a temperature problem, not a precipitation problem.
Some areas have seen near-normal total moisture, it just fell as rain instead of snow( or rapidly melted). While not ideal, because we prefer the“ reservoir” of a slow-melting snowpack to keep us through July, it does mean the soil moisture in some spots is actually better than one might think.
We’ re up against the clock. April 1 is the classic pivotal moment for the water year, which is usually when we hit peak snowpack before the melt starts. Water supply concerns are legitimate and they are growing. While the ski resorts are feeling the hit now, the real impact for us hits in May and June.
Keep a close eye on your specific basin’ s Snow Water Equivalent( SWE). Understanding why your snow is low, whether it is a pure lack of moisture or just the heat preventing accumulation, is going to be the key to gauging your risk for the season ahead.
When Do You Think We Will Know What Type of El Niño is Coming?
I have previously written about the Spring-Predictability Barrier and how computer model forecasts made this time of the year struggle with El Niño or La Niña forecasts in the months ahead. That is a classic barrier through March, but we see skill scores for computer modeling sharply increase by April and May. However, history is a great guide which is why I base these forecasts on history first and modeling second. Analog-based approaches are far less affected by the Spring Predictability Barrier because they rely on observed historical evolution rather than forward simulation. Historically speaking, we have a greater than 60 % chance of El Niño development by later this summer through fall. Current computer models are similar in their probability. The key thing to watch for in future National Cattlemen articles is the speed at which this possible El Niño forms as development speed can significantly influence late-summer and fall precipitation patterns.
16 MARCH 2026 www. NCBA. org