MORE CATTLE TURNED OUT ON WHEAT
MARKET UPDATE
By Mary Kurzweil, Analyst CattleFax
The latest inventory report showed more cattle turned out on small grains pasture to start 2026 in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, totaling 1.73 million head. This is up 180,000 from last year and is the largest number since January 2021.
This increase is somewhat surprising given the cyclically tight cattle supply and continued lack of calves from Mexico that would normally be turned out to graze. That said, last year’ s supply was also likely suppressed by the lack of Mexican cattle arriving after Thanksgiving 2024, which is typically right around when cattle start getting turned out on dual-purpose wheat in a double-stocking scenario. Additionally, the inventory of feeder cattle outside of feedyards was 220,000 head higher in the latest report compared to a year ago, so it makes sense to see a few more on wheat.
Wheat crop conditions were slightly below year-ago levels going into the grazing period, with the late November winter wheat condition index at 67 for the U. S. average. For the Southern Plains though, conditions came in at 69, on par with year-ago levels. Since November, however, there has been very little precipitation, particularly in Texas and Oklahoma. This has likely worsened conditions, though the USDA does not release wheat condition reports through the winter months.
With more cattle on
wheat to start the year, we should start seeing more feeder cattle come to market now if they were turned out early, clearing pasture so calves can be double stocked. Auction receipts did pick up slightly in the latest week of data but are still running relatively light compared to previous years. For wheat headed to harvest, there is normally still another month or so before cattle are pulled off, though the lack of precipitation in the past few months could accelerate that timeline.
Calf prices have been strong, with record-high spreads on a percentage basis between 550-lb and 850-lb steers. This indicates robust demand, and likely means some calves are being purchased specifically to turn out on wheat. The spread between northern and southern 600-lb steers is also very narrow relative to normal, another indicator that calf demand in the South is particularly strong right now.
Bottom Line: Wheat grazing inventory is up from recent years, but don’ t expect a flood of feeder cattle to hit the market. Dry conditions since November are likely limiting double-stocking opportunities on grazeout wheat, while tight calf supplies and reduced Mexican cattle imports keep overall numbers constrained. The narrow price spread between northern and southern calves signals buyers in wheat country are competing for the tight available supply. www. NCBA. org NATIONAL CATTLEMEN 19