UNDERSTANDING EL NIÑO AND WHAT A“ SUPER” EVENT COULD MEAN
By Matt Makens Atmospheric Scientist
It is no longer gossip or rumor; La Niña has ended, and El Niño is expected. El Niño is one of the most influential climate drivers for global agriculture. Defined technically as the warm phase of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation( ENSO), it occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are above normal, causing the atmosphere to respond and altering weather patterns globally. That ocean – atmosphere“ coupling” is what ultimately shifts rainfall, temperature and storm tracks across key growing regions worldwide.
During the past two winters, the global pattern was in the cool phase of ENSO, La Niña. You may recall me stating something called ENSO-Neutral, too. That is when sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are near average. La Niña is our classic troublemaker for the beef industry, bringing widespread drought. ENSO-Neutral has fewer extremes. El Niño typically raises optimism for the industry because it can deliver abundant moisture, improving grazing and forage for most of us.
From a technical standpoint, El Niño is declared when sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region reach at least + 0.5 ° C above normal for multiple overlapping three-month periods. Keep in mind, local impacts can be delayed by weeks to months after El Niño thresholds are met in ocean temperatures. But for agriculture, the strength of the event matters far more than the definition itself. Here is a traditional breakdown:
• Weak El Niño: + 0.5 ° C to + 1.0 ° C
• Moderate: + 1.0 ° C to + 1.5 ° C
• Strong: + 1.5 ° C to + 2.0 ° C
• Very Strong / Historically Strong /” Super”: warmer than + 2.0 ° C
This is where the concept of a“ Super El Niño” comes into play. Although not an official classification used by the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration( NOAA), the term is widely adopted in scientific and meteorological communities to describe the strongest events on record, generally those with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding + 2.0 ° C. These extreme events, such as those observed in 1982 – 1983, 1997 – 1998, and 2015 – 2016, are associated with far more pronounced and disruptive global weather patterns.
Data collected through April indicate a“ super” event is possible, based on historical analogs, current precipitation and wind patterns, and computer simulations. Those computer models have biases; I constantly correct for them being too warm / cold, fast / slow, etc., and I also consider each model’ s track record. Even so, raw versus bias-corrected data indicate that a moderate or strong event is likely, and a fair percentage(~ 25 %) of the data support a“ super” event.
During a typical El Niño, the southern U. S. tends to experience wetter conditions, while regions such as Australia and Indonesia often turn drier. A“ super” event amplifies these patterns, increasing the likelihood of flooding, drought and temperature extremes across key agricultural regions worldwide. My research has shown that these stronger events also tend to elevate global temperatures and intensify shifts in the jet stream, further influencing storm tracks and seasonal climate behavior. What It Typically Means for U. S. Agriculture I almost hate to do this because no two events are the same, with a wide variety of outcomes. Still, if we clump them together to form a“ standard El Niño pattern”:
• Southern U. S.( Texas to the Southeast): Wetter conditions increase soil moisture and winter wheat prospects, but also raise risks of flooding, disease pressure and delayed fieldwork.
16 MAY 2026 www. NCBA. org