WEATHER UPDATE
This event has similar strengths to El Niños from 1982-83 and 1987-88 but weaker than the 2014-15 and 1997-98 events through October . This is a moderate to strong event thus far , so we need to consider some of the strong El Niño outcomes from that August National Cattlemen . This event is different from those other events in the behavior of the Northern Pacific Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean combined with the El Niño type — so it will have its own unique outcome . The Northern Pacific Ocean is behaving in a way that will certainly have an impact on this El Niño event . That influence likely takes away some of the surplus moisture areas from the Southern states . Image 2 show a look at the odds of being wet or dry all together from November through April based on historical years , as well as model projections from the American and Canadian seasonal weather forecast tools .
The combined impacts delay the onset of the wetter weather for the Southern Plains , so supplemental fall irrigation may be needed before dormancy and trucking in water for stock may be required longer this go round . The Southwestern U . S . usually gets water from the winter to spring but this event may limit just how much of a surplus they see . Drought conditions will worsen for the Northern states , the central and eastern Corn Belt , and from the Ohio Valley toward the mid-Mississippi . I have concerns about that dry area extending into East Texas if this event cannot get a bit stronger . Part of that blame will come from the
Northern Pacific Ocean ’ s influence on limiting the overall impact of a strong El Niño event .
In short , a more favorable winter and spring is still likely for wheat , pastures and surface water for the Southern Plains . Soil moisture drought will be an issue for the Northern states and the Corn Belt at the start of the next growing season . www . WSRins . com / ranch-protection / CA License # 0B48084
www . NCBA . org NATIONAL CATTLEMEN 19