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FROM DETECTION TO PREVENTION What This Winter ' s Potential La Niña Means for Your Operation

By Matt Makens Atmospheric Scientist

This winter ' s potential La Niña weather pattern brings both challenges and opportunities for cow-calf producers across the U. S. While early indicators suggest a weaker pattern than during the severe drought years of 2020- 2023, producers should prepare for increased temperature swings and regional drought risks that could impact everything from calving schedules to feed costs.

We are getting used to these kinds of winters. Since 2000, we ' ve experienced only one El Niño winter( 2023-2024), making La Niña conditions the norm rather than the exception. Last winter( 2024-2025) featured a brief, weak La Niña that quickly transitioned to neutral conditions. Now, the upcoming 2025-2026 winter may bring another La Niña event, though current data suggests it will remain relatively weak— potentially good news for producers in drought-prone regions. However, we must monitor this year ' s event closely. Should it strengthen beyond current projections, drought risk will increase significantly for central and southern states. Historically, two of more than a dozen similar years eventually developed into strong La Niña events, the others remained weak La Niñas or Neutral.

Recall with La Niña that we are discussing ocean temperatures in a particular region of the Pacific. The linkage to the atmosphere depends on how much warmer or cooler that area of ocean is relative to its average. La Niña occurs when Pacific Ocean temperatures cool below average in a specific region, creating atmospheric changes that ripple across North America. The weaker this ocean cooling, the less severe the typical La Niña impacts— meaning other weather factors can play bigger roles in your local conditions.

Data to date show the coldest ocean is likely early in winter( a peak in December), although only technically a weak La Niña( similar to last year). Weaker La Niña events allow

34 NATIONAL CATTLEMEN DIRECTIONS 2025