other atmospheric factors to exert greater influence on weather patterns. These factors include Gulf of Alaska temperatures, the location of the warmest northern Pacific waters, and Siberian snow cover during fall. Basically, any large region with temperatures significantly above or below normal can impact seasonal weather conditions globally. As an example for this winter, some of these other factors may decrease the moisture for the Pacific Northwest from a“ classic” La Niña. Conversely, that may allow more moisture for the central to northern Rocky Mountains and nearby High Plains.

Again though, the biggest influence goes back to the La Niña conditions. I plotted how much moisture was recorded during Neutral, weak La Niñas, and strong La Niñas since 1950 to show how different the patterns can be( Figure 1).

How might this year be different than these averages shown above? First, the ultimate strength of this event— tied to how cold the ocean gets in our La Niña region— will change the temperature and precipitation outcomes. Second, I have to consider the other impactors that have historically shown influence over La Niña by either adding to its impact or detracting from it. Third, for those on the West Coast, particularly California, the influence of La Niña( or El Niño) has a lot less weight on your winters historically. So, yes, we rightfully give a lot of focus on La Niña but the actual influence on producers varies quite a bit from location to location.

Regionally, here are some considerations:

• Pacific Northwest: May see less moisture than typical La Niña years due to other atmospheric factors( warm ocean in the northern Pacific), potentially affecting winter grazing and water sources.

• Central to Northern Rockies and High Plains: Could receive more moisture than average, offering some relief for winter wheat pasture.

• Central and Southern Plains: History shows these areas face the highest drought risk during La Niña winters, with impacts likely intensifying as winter progresses.

• West Coast( especially California): La Niña has less influence here. Your winter moisture depends more on Pacific storm patterns than the La Niña cycle.

La Niña winters are warmer than normal across the southern U. S. meanwhile colder than average for those

across the North; this is only part of the story.

Typically, moisture is the leading topic, yet, there is also the temperature impact to consider. In general, La Niña winters are warmer than normal across the southern U. S. meanwhile colder than average for those across the North; this is only part of the story.

As producers think through preparations from fall, winter or spring calving and on to forage health, there are La Niña temperature swings that create unique management challenges. In this year’ s case, I flagged about seven years from the past that may play out similarly this time around. Of those, the number of cold days during the winter increased.

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