Weather Outlook
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• Northern Plains / Upper Midwest: Winters with similar patterns have historically experienced up to 12 additional days when temperatures dip below 0 ° F versus an average winter.
• Central Plains / Midwest: Six to 12 additional days below 15 ° F.
• Southern States: Even these states will likely see more freezing days— roughly five to 10 more than an average winter— despite warmer average temperatures overall.
These swings happen because La Niña creates a more variable jetstream pattern, delivering both unusually warm and unusually cold air masses throughout the winter. Similar years saw lots of temperature swings and volatility. This temperature“ roller coaster” obviously may have an impact on what you will go through this winter from calving to forage growth. For the mapping blue represents increased number of days for the temperature indicated.
Approaching this particular winter, here are some thoughts I have:
• For winter and early spring calvers, the temperature volatility is highest. Monitor weather forecasts closely for cold snaps during calving season.
Figure 2
• Plan for backup heating or ice breaking for water systems during extended cold periods, stock extra bedding for sudden weather changes, etc.
• Central / Southern Plains: Evaluate hay supply— drought conditions may worsen through winter. Odds lean drier and, unless there is impeccably timed moisture, forages may struggle.
• Northern regions: Potential above-normal moisture for winter wheat grazing.
• Plan for potential ice storms in areas seeing more temperature volatility.
La Niña impacts evolve throughout the cold season( November through March). We ' re already seeing drought conditions expanding eastward from western regions, and this trend will likely continue based on current projections.
For producers in drought-prone areas, the timing of what little precipitation falls becomes critical. Unlike consistent moisture patterns, La Niña winters often deliver precipitation in concentrated events separated by long dry spells.
While this La Niña appears weaker than recent years— potentially reducing the severity of impacts compared to 2020-2023 ' s devastating droughts— we can’ t let our guard down and need to monitor this year’ s event cautiously. The increased temperature volatility alone presents significant management challenges, on top of the drought risk remaining elevated across much of cattle country.
36 NATIONAL CATTLEMEN DIRECTIONS 2025