By Matt Makens Atmospheric Scientist

This winter has one dominant driver, and it’ s a big one. Data put the odds of a very strong El Niño at greater than 90 % for this fall and winter. The event is likely to peak at a level that will make it the strongest on record, exceeding 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. El Niño is clearly the signal to focus on this winter, but how it shows up varies by region; other factors may offset some of the expected El Niño influence.

El Niño is one of the most influential climate drivers for global agriculture, especially the stronger it gets. Technically defined as the warm phase of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation( ENSO), it occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are warmer than normal, causing the atmosphere to react and shift weather patterns globally. The strength of an event is scored by how much warmer than normal that area of ocean is, which gives a bigger“ shock” to the atmosphere. That ocean – atmosphere“ coupling” ultimately shapes rainfall, temperature and storm tracks worldwide.

During the past two winters, the global pattern was in the cool phase of ENSO: La Niña. La Niña is our classic troublemaker for the U. S. beef industry, bringing widespread drought. Through late this summer, pasture and rangeland conditions remained challenged in most regions. By late August, the U. S. was running at 56.6 % drought coverage in the Lower 48, with Southern Plains range / pasture in stress( 51 % poor / very poor in Oklahoma, 73 % in Nebraska).

Transitioning away from one climate driver’ s impact to another takes time. Shifting precipitation patterns in the weeks and months ahead will ultimately increase precipitation frequency across much of the country, and we begin to bring drought numbers down over time. El Niño typically raises optimism for the industry because it can deliver abundant moisture, improving grazing and forage for most of us. This probable shift is critical for the industry.

It is important to add that although El Niño events reduce drought, they are not a cure-all; parts of northern states can see drought increase, and the amount of drought improvement for the South remains to be seen. Droughts that developed over years can be difficult to remove in one season.

In general, El Niño means a milder-than-normal winter— but don’ t confuse milder for no cold risk at all; El Niño reduces the frequency of cold events but does not eliminate them— across the northern twothirds of the country and a wetter storm track across the southern two-thirds. This often delivers less frequent moisture across the Northern Rockies and Upper Midwest. The stronger the event, such as this one, the more extreme and regionalized those anomalies can become. Because this is a unique event and El Niño ' s influence changes throughout the winter, I’ ve broken the region-specific winter forecast into three chunks: early winter( November-December), midwinter( January-February), and late winter into spring( March-April).

Northwest: Expect this region to run above normal in temperature all season, mild in early winter, and stay above normal by mid-winter and into spring. Precipitation can be more variable as early winter and

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