mid-winter both lean drier than normal, then the pattern flips as spring approaches with better odds of above-normal precipitation by March and April. If you are managing rangeland in this region, watch snowpack closely through January and February because El Niño typically reduces snowpack. A mild, drier winter can leave you short going into spring.
West: California and Nevada look wetter than normal, with the strongest signal in mid-winter when there is a high confidence in above-normal precipitation. Temperatures stay close to normal, trending slightly above normal in the core of winter. This is a fairly clean and classic El Niño setup for this region. Honestly, it’ s really more about atmospheric river events, which are more likely in this winter’ s case than last year.
Southwest: Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah carry one of the most consistent signals in this whole outlook. I have at least likely, and at times high, confidence in above-normal precipitation, while temperatures stay close to normal throughout, although, I am cautious about southern and eastern New Mexico due to offsetting factors that may reduce the total precipitation relative to others. This is the textbook Southwest response to a strong El Niño, and if it verifies the way the data suggest, it should be a genuinely beneficial winter for moisture across the region. The storm track can favor bigger snow events, especially along the Front Range.
Northern Rockies: This region shows the strongest and most persistent warm signal outside of the Upper Midwest and Northeast, running well above normal from November through April. A warm pattern likely brings less frequent moisture in early and mid-winter, where I’ d put the odds for below-normal precipitation across Montana, Wyoming, the Dakotas and Nebraska. The pattern eases some by March and April, with precipitation odds shifting toward above normal as bigger storms are more likely into spring.
South: The main storm flow will consistently travel across this region. Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi look wetter than normal all winter. For West and South Texas, offsetting factors may limit moisture compared to other areas. Temperatures start warmer than average, then near normal, then trend below normal by March and April.
Upper Midwest: Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan show one of the warmest signals in the outlook, above normal all season. Again, this reduces cold events but does not eliminate them. Precipitation runs close to normal early, then leans drier through mid-winter and into spring.
Ohio Valley: Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia and Tennessee start the season with a solid warm signal in November and December, then shift toward near-normal temperatures by spring. Precipitation is mixed, with near-even
odds of above- and below-normal for most of the season after wetter conditions to start. I would not lean too hard on precipitation here— El Niño’ s correlation to this region’ s weather is lower than others.
Southeast: Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama and Florida carry the wettest signal in this outlook, with abovenormal precipitation through winter, easing slightly in spring. Temperatures are less consistent— mild in early winter then swinging to below normal by mid-winter before moderating back toward normal by spring. The classic El Niño southeastern storm track is at work here with an active, wet pattern that also tends to open the door to cooler air.
Northeast: From Maine down through Maryland, I expect a mild winter throughout, running warmer than normal from November through April. Precipitation leans wetter, especially at the core of winter in January and February, before precipitation chances level out close to normal by spring while the mild temperatures hang on. These types of winters can produce more coastal lows( Nor’ easters, too) based on the position and persistence of the main storm track.
Bottom line: I trust the overall pattern— mild across the North, wet across the South— more than I trust any single location’ s forecast. El Niño winters are not going to be identical, and offsetting factors from other pattern-drivers still leave room for individual storms and cold snaps that buck the seasonal trends in each region. Use this as a backdrop for your planning and follow the forecast in the months ahead to determine how much this event changes compared to our expectations.
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