replacement heifers were up 2.7 % from a year ago.
Larger heifer retention levels are expected to continue throughout the remainder of 2026 following smaller numbers of heifers moving through sale barns and video auctions. Sales receipts in 2026 averaged 39.3 % heifers year-to-date compared to a 10-year average of 40.8 %, suggesting additional heifers have been and will continue to be pulled from the terminal supply mix to keep back for breeding. This increased heifer demand is reflected in bred female values which are forecast to average in the $ 4,000 to $ 4,500-per-head range this winter.
Herd growth will also be supported on the aged female side as cull cow slaughter decreased dramatically in the past few years. Year-to-date, weekly beef cow slaughter is down 205,000 head, or 14 %, from 2025 levels with projections for an annual decline of 283,000 head this year. When applied to the Jan. 1 beef cow inventory, this suggests a U. S. average implied culling rate of 7.5 % in 2026, which would be the lowest national culling level in almost 50 years. This also explains the record cull cow values with Utility cows on pace to average $ 170 / cwt in 2026.
Impacts from a smaller calf crop this year will mostly be offset by the resumption of feeder imports from Mexico which will, in effect, accelerate the impacts of herd expansion by a year. The closure of the Mexican border removed an annual supply of 1 to 1.2 million head from the marketplace and, while imports are not expected to return to those levels anytime soon, enough feeders are expected to cross the border to result in larger fed harvest levels in 2027, leaving 2026 as the cycle low in beef production. While much will depend on the weights of incoming cattle and the speed at which additional ports-ofentry are brought online, initial estimates suggest the additional feeder cattle supply from Mexico should lift fed slaughter roughly 500,000 head from 2026 levels. Despite recent harvest facility closures, fed cattle supplies will still fall short of available packing capacity. However, this spread is expected to narrow, resulting in increased capacity utilization compared to the past 12 to 18 months. A key factor to watch will be the timing of
Thousand Head
600 590 580 570 560 550 540 530 520 510 500 490 480 470 460 450 440 430
Fed Slaughter Capacity Utilization Vs. Monday-Friday Packing Capacity
Effective 40-Hr Capacity Lost to Disruptions & Inefficiencies Wkly. Avg. Fed Sltr.
Tyson Closed West Point and Boise- 2006 Tyson Closed Emporia- 2008
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Source: CattleFax Forecasts, Assumptions
Cargill Closed Plainview- 2013
Years
Tyson Closed Dennison, PM Beef Closed- 2015
National Closed Brawley- 2014
Tyson Closed Lexington- 2026
adding back the second kill shift at the Tyson Amarillo plant.
In addition to cattle producers losing leverage associated with reductions in packing capacity, additional price risk can be found from softening beef demand. While exceptional consumer demand has supported retail and wholesale beef values to reach record levels, signs indicate beef demand has now hit resistance and will no longer be able to sustain the price growth the industry has seen thus far. USDA all-fresh retail beef prices are expected to average $ 9.55 / lb in 2026 before softening modestly in 2027 as consumers substitute higher value steaks with more inexpensive ground beef products.
This trade down within the beef complex is more apparent at the wholesale level and results in a weekly composite cutout value which is starting to run at, and below, year-ago levels. Looking ahead, the composite cutout is expected to average roughly $ 20 / cwt lower in 2027. This reflects continued consumer fatigue, increasing beef production, and continued large beef imports. Despite this trend change, the quality, consistency and flavor of beef remains the industry’ s
40 NATIONAL CATTLEMEN DIRECTIONS 2026