= 100)( 1998
Demand Index
160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85
Annual U. S. Wholesale Beef Demand Index
2024 |
$ 305 |
2025 |
$ 357 |
F2026 |
$ 374 |
F2027 |
$ 355 |
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 Years
Source: USDA, BLS, K-State CattleFax Projection
$ 380 $ 360 $ 340 $ 320 $ 300 $ 280 $ 260 $ 240 $ 220 $ 200 $ 180 $ 160 $ 140 $ 120 $ 100 $ 80
Composite Cutout $/ cwt
500 480 460 440 420 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
Source: CattleFax
Years
$/ cwt
Annual U. S. Average Cattle Prices
Cutout 550 # Steer 800 # Steer Fed
foundation, essential to holding beef and cattle prices above pre-COVID levels in the years ahead.
Although herd rebuilding is just getting underway, the cattle market likely already found the cyclical price peak. Increased beef production in 2027, combined with softening demand, should continue to pressure both retail and wholesale prices. And, while cattle producers will continue to hold historically strong leverage positions, it is likely to ease as cattle supplies grow. Feeder cattle and calf producers, who have enjoyed the strongest leverage and margin levels in recent years, now face greater price risk in the next 12 to 18 months. U. S. average prices for 550-lb steer calves, after averaging around $ 475 / cwt in 2026, are expected to soften to near $ 400 / cwt in 2027.
The U. S. cattle industry has endured a large amount of noise over the past few years including multiple border closures and reopenings, policy changes impacting beef imports and exports, and harvest plant closures. This led to cattle markets which have shown time and again the ability to change direction rapidly, making it tougher to forecast and manage around these markets. This culminates in decreasing producer confidence in the long-term stability of the markets, further challenging operations that are considering growing their herds. With a strong potential for continued volatility and the cattle price cycle shifting into a downward trajectory, it is critical now, more than ever, to remain disciplined in approaches to marketing and risk management.
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DIRECTIONS 2026 NATIONAL CATTLEMEN 41