A CAUTIOUS START TO HERD REBUILDING
By Dave Weaber, Senior Animal Protein Analyst Terrain
A Farm Credit Cattle Customer Survey on Herd Expansion Plans offers a timely look into how U. S. ranchers are thinking about rebuilding their herds after years of contraction. With more than 1,000 producers participating across 28 states, the survey provides one of the clearest pictures yet of where the beef cow herd stands, what drove changes in 2025, and how producers are approaching decisions for 2026 and 2027. Rebuilding Begins— Slowly After seven years of herd liquidation, 2025 marked an important turning point. Beef cow slaughter fell sharply enough— down 16.7 % from the previous year— to finally stabilize national herd numbers and set the stage for early rebuilding. Producers in the survey generally confirmed that trend: expansion has begun, but at a mild pace.
One of the biggest questions entering the year was whether ranchers would start retaining more heifer calves for breeding. The answer is mixed. About half of operations bred more females in 2025 than in 2024, and for those who increased breeding activity, the average bump was roughly 13 %. But more of that increase came from adding cows( 58.5 %) rather than raising heifers( 41.5 %). That distinction matters because buying cows shifts animals between operations without adding new cattle to the national total.
Heifers as a percentage of the cattle on feed remain elevated relative to previous periods of herd expansion. This survey’ s results show that many producers who elected to grow, have grown in a way that should maximize operational revenue: by selling heifer calves and adding older females that could add to the following year’ s calf crop.
Still, taken together— slower slaughter, some heifer retention, and the movement of cows between herds— the data suggest the national beef cow herd likely grew slightly heading into 2026, perhaps by 1.5 % to 2.5 %. It’ s a cautious start to recovery. Who Participated and Why That Matters The average age of a survey respondent was 57.7 years, nearly identical to the most recent Census of Agriculture. Most operations ran between 20 and 199 head, aligning with national herd size patterns. The smallest producers( one to nine head) appear somewhat underrepresented, likely because many hobby- or youth project-type herds fall outside Farm Credit customer bases.
These demographics matter because age, experience and operation size all play a role in the risk tolerance and decisionmaking behind expansion. Expansion Plans for 2026 and 2027 Producers are cautiously optimistic for 2026 and 2027 but not leaning aggressively into growth. For 2026:
• 43.5 % plan to breed more females than in 2025
• 30.4 % plan to breed the same or fewer than in 2025
• 26 % are unsure
By 2027, uncertainty grows:
• 33 % expect to increase bred heifers from 2026
• 23 % expect to hold steady or decrease from 2026
• 44 % are unsure What’ s Holding Producers Back? For the many operations choosing not to expand, environmental and land-based challenges stand far above economic or political
concerns. When asked to rank their top reasons for not increasing herd size: 1. Grazing condition concerns( 32.2 %) 2. Drought forecasts( 9.2 %) 3. Pasture availability( 26.5 %) Labor availability, retirement timing and political factors all fell to the bottom of the list. With ongoing drought pressure and pasture recovery lagging, even optimistic producers remain cautious. Implications for Calf Numbers and Cattle Prices Because expansion is happening slowly, calf and feeder cattle supplies are expected to stay tight during the next several years. Reduced numbers outside feedlots will likely support strong prices for cow-calf producers, and margins will stay compressed for feeders and packers. High-quality bred cows and heifers will also remain expensive. A Transition, Not a Surge The survey paints a picture of an industry in transition— moving away from liquidation but not yet confident enough for largescale growth. Producers appear willing to expand, but only when conditions like moisture, the grazing outlook and forage availability are good.
Rebuilding has begun, but nature more than markets will set the pace. In the meantime, communication between producers and their financing partners will be key for navigating this chapter of tight supplies and evolving opportunities.
Terrain is a team of economists who provide expert analysis to the customers of AgCountry Farm Credit Services, American AgCountry, Farm Credit Services of America and Frontier Farm Credit. Learn more at Terrainag. com.
20 FEBRUARY 2026 www. NCBA. org