National Cattlemen February 2026 | Page 21

MARKET UPDATE

By Matthew McQuagge, Analyst CattleFax

Bred female prices were slightly softer in December compared to November as volatility in the fed and feeder cattle futures markets spilled over into the female market. That said, bred female prices ended the year up more than $ 1,000 / head above yearago levels with bred cows averaging $ 4,100 / head and bred heifers at $ 4,200 in December. Breeding females have been supported by record calf prices and profits in the cow-calf sector this past year. Following the stabilization, and subsequent performance, in the cattle markets, look for female prices to reestablish the uptrend with further upside expected going into the spring. However, there remains only another 30 to 45 days of large trade volumes before we approach the start of spring calving season.

Despite historically high female prices, the number of calves to pay for a bred female at current market level remains below the long-term average due to calf values remaining well supported in this higher trading range over the next few years. Assuming an average calf price of $ 1,835 / head in the next four years, and trendline costs, a bred heifer purchased at $ 4,300 would pay for herself with four calves. In summary: Bred female values have increased from the past few years back to near the longterm average in terms of the number of calves necessary to pay for her.

This ratio is expected to increase in the next few years as calf values start to turn lower following the cycle high.

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