National Cattlemen January 2024 | Page 22

By Matt Makens Atmospheric Scientist

I know what you may be thinking from this title , “ We just finished a La Niña ,” but we can start preparations for the next La Niña even though we are in the current El Niño event . Expect La Niña to return this year , so let ’ s take the time now — early in the year — to walk through the potential change . This can help us get some planning done for our operations .

First , we are still in an El Niño phase , but this one has been a different “ flavor ” ( if you will ) than some that come to mind from the past . Comparisons can be made to the strengths of 1982- 1983 , 1997-1998 , and 2015-2016 . Those comparisons , though , are in the ocean conditions alone . This event struggles to control the atmosphere as strongly as some of those past events ; the global weather pattern has been in a weaker El Niño phase .

Ocean conditions outside of the Tropical Pacific are a key factor in the ultimate strength of El Niño patterns . As a brief example , for North America , a component is the behavior of the Northern Pacific Ocean between Hawaii , the Pacific Northwest and Alaska . The ocean here can work to reinforce El Niño events or counteract them . In this case , the Northern Pacific Ocean has been a rival more than an ally to the strength and the duration of the 2023-2024 El Niño . There are other factors related to the strength and frequency of El Niño versus La Niña events , but we can save these causes for another time . Using history as our guide , this event will weaken and La Niña will return quickly .

Since 1998 , the global pattern has favored La Niña events . To emphasize that , since the 1920s , five of six multi-year La Niña events have occurred since 1998 . Prior to 1998 , El Niño events were not only more frequent , but were also stronger .

Considering these historical tendencies , there is just a 14 % chance this El Niño can last more than one year in this current long-term pattern . Instead , most events fade back to neutral or a La Niña within the year . There is more than just history supporting this outlook .

Computer modeling , those that see out so far , also support this shift back toward La Niña by the summer . As we transition together , you ’ ll hear me speak more about the cooling of the Tropical Pacific Ocean on NCBA ’ s Cattlemen to Cattlemen episodes , at CattleCon , and future events . That change to the ocean will be our transition away from El Niño , and I will guide you through the speed of this — the speed is critical to our planning through summer , next fall and winter .

“ Transition .” What does this mean ? When I say transition , it is the transition of our weather pattern and where it places the moisture and drought areas from season to season . During El Niño events , like the one we are in now , moisture is favored across the southern U . S ., whereas the Corn Belt and northern states can see drought increase . La Niña events tend to spread drought across the Southern Plains to the West and give the Ohio Valley , Great Lakes , Midwest , and Northern Plains more moisture . When I say transition , I mean how quickly will we see drought or moisture return .

Our industry has been hit hard with drought across the West and the Southern Plains , especially 2020-2023 ( our last La Niña cycle ). How quickly may we see this drought return with the next La Niña cycle ? Let me show you what history has done in those cases .

The included graphic represents two possible outcomes for this year in terms of precipitation from historically similar cases ( green shades are moisture areas , and brown shades are deficits ). Maps across the top are one solution , the bottom row displays a quicker return of La Niña .

We will remain in the current El Niño through part of spring , then head in a couple directions for the summer and fall . So , the two maps on the left represent moisture conditions through the mid-second quarter of 2024 . Then we approach summer and fall with two scenarios . If this transition away from El Niño takes a bit of time , we have the top-center map to represent our likely summer precipitation for 2024 . This is a neutral phase — one in which neither El Niño nor La Niña are in control . The

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