WEATHER UPDATE
bottom-center map represents a summer when La Niña has more control . The same continues for the two right-hand maps , a neutral fall on top and a La Niña fall on bottom .
As we ’ ve discussed here , history supports both cases but does lean into the La Niña by fall . So , our scale is tipping heavier for La Niña this summer , with even more weight by fall . If we add in computer modeling ( that which is available at those longer ranges ), we tip those scales even more heavily toward La Niña this summer and fall . With that , the bottom row of maps is the more likely transition of precipitation patterns from season to season during 2024 .
Late winter and early spring will be wettest for production across the Southwest and Southern Plains . However , if my operation is in the northern Rockies or Southeast , I may be thinking about some level of drought returning / continuing during the spring .
By summer , if I am a producer in the Texas Panhandle or southwest Kansas ( as an example ) and notice things have dried out a lot , I will be thinking that the transition to La Niña is occurring quickly . I ’ ll need to think about drought options for the rest of the year . The best case for my operation in this region will be a slow transition to allow some longer-lasting precipitation into the summer .
For producers across the northern states , a slower transition will also help me in the summer by getting increased moisture . However , I may want to have a strong La Niña come back so I will get more moisture in the fall .
As is the case with any event , El Niño or La Niña , our industry faces challenges . We simply shift the moisture and drought areas around based on which pattern is in control . Granted , I have presented some general guidance here today based on historical averages . When I see you in Orlando , I ’ ll have specific outlooks for the year . If you are not able to attend CattleCon , you ’ ll find specific outlooks in future writings from NCBA ’ s multiple sources .
Happy New Year .
23 NATIONAL CATTLEMEN www . NCBA . org