HOPE IN THE MUD? RAINFALL DURING LONG-TERM DROUGHT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
By Matt Makens Atmospheric Scientist
After several years of watching spring storm systems skirt past, many Southern Plains cattle producers are facing a different kind of challenge this time— mud. In parts of Texas, Oklahoma and eastern New Mexico, April and May brought some of the wettest conditions in decades. In fact, April ranked as the wettest on record for many, with observations dating back to 1895. Ponds refilled. Pastures greened up early and aggressively.
For producers who’ ve weathered more than two decades of onand-off drought, there’ s cautious optimism. Is this just another wet spring in a dry pattern, or has something changed in the longrange outlooks? Let’ s look into the recent anomalous rainfall in historically drought-prone areas, compare current trends to past“ relief springs,” and explore what this moisture means for grazing conditions and the long-term outlook.
We took a deep dive into range and pasture conditions in last month’ s article, so this time let’ s expand the conversation to what a wet spring means in the broader context of long-term drought. Since the late 1990s, drought has been a persistent challenge west of I-35. Among the most extreme episodes was the 2012 drought, which contributed to a sharp decline in the beef cow herd. Herd size increased following 2014-2015 lows, peaking in 2019, only to retract again in the wake of the 2021 – 2022 drought. Now at new lows, the industry eyes the possibility of herd expansion again, but drought concerns remain the primary red flag, slowing rapid heifer retention. Relief Springs of the Past
Both 2015 and 2016 stand out as wet years, particularly across Texas, Oklahoma, and parts of New Mexico and Kansas. Particularly, 2015 delivered drought relief and sparked herd expansion in many regions. Notably, this occurred during one of the strongest El Niño events on record, fueling widespread optimism among producers.
While some moisture persisted from 2017-2018, it became more regional and less reliable. Localized drought episodes during this rebuilding period reminded many to proceed with caution. In 2019, it was the last widespread and truly wet spring for the majority. Then came the drought surge of 2020 – 2022,
driven in large part by a prolonged La Niña event that spanned nearly three years( a three-year La Niña has only happened a small handful of times since the 1940s). It’ s one of the defining contributors to the reduced U. S. herd size we see today.
Although 2023 into early 2024 featured an El Niño event that helped alleviate drought across much of the U. S., its strength faded by spring‘ 24. La Niña conditions returned late last year, and data indicate it will continue for the foreseeable future, raising concerns about another dry finish to this year. Unlike the moisture from the 2015-2016 El Niño, the 2023-2024 version didn’ t lead to a widespread wave of heifer retention. What to Make of Spring 2025
This spring’ s moisture in the Southern Plains is a tremendous boost for an otherwise dry long-term setup. In every La Niña drought, there are windows— sometimes only a few weeks long— when springtime moisture can surprise. But as La Niña strengthens, those favorable windows become more isolated. In this year’ s case, other factors are helping offset La Niña and giving a boost to Southern Plains moisture. I don’ t want to get buried in mud here, pardon the pun, but patterns known as the QBO, MJO and ocean temperatures off California / Baja / Mexico are some of those other elements.
Historical analogs reinforce that wet springs in long-term
12 JUNE 2025 www. NCBA. org