WEATHER UPDATE

drought regimes tend not to last. Looking at past patterns, the summer and autumn following a wet spring were drier than average about 60 %– 70 % of the time. For areas of Texas and Oklahoma in particular, summer precipitation in those years often fell to less than 80 %– 85 % of normal from June through August.

In other words, wet springs during prolonged droughts rarely signal a lasting recovery, but they sure are nice when they are well-timed.

This historical guidance, the basis of my weather outlooks, matches NOAA’ s recent forecasts, which call for belownormal summer precipitation across much of the central U. S., from Texas northward into the Dakotas. Multi-model ensemble simulations— dozens of computer forecasts averaged together— suggest a greater than 65 % chance of drought development or intensification across the corridor from Texas to Canada. Where Does That Leave Us?

Depending on your location, this spring may have delivered the perfect combination of rainfall and timing to fuel strong forage growth and grazing enthusiasm heading into summer. For others, the moisture may have been a welcome boost, but not enough. Many producers will now look to July and August for another push of rain to round out the growing season. That moisture may come to those in the Southwest awaiting the monsoon, which looks to be at its best in July.

Whatever your situation, cautious optimism remains the most

appropriate stance. Both historical data and forward-looking model simulations suggest we stay in a long-term drought cycle through 2025, even if Mother Nature gives us a break occasionally.

Still, the sight of full ponds and vibrant green pastures is exciting— just be mindful of what history has taught us about what most likely comes next.

For more information visit: stockmanshipandstewardship. org

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