BEEF COW HERD SEEKS A LOW
By Patrick Linnell CattleFax Analyst
MARKET UPDATE
The U . S . beef cow herd declined by 150,000 head to begin 2025 , closely in line with expectations and continuing the cyclical contraction pattern that has been in place since 2019 . Whether 2025 is ultimately the low water mark for the cow herd in this cycle remains to be seen , but cow culling and heifer retention patterns indicate it will be close .
The 0.5 % decline in the cow herd from 2024 to 2025 was the smallest year-to-year reduction in this cycle . Culling rates dropped sharply during 2024 as beef cow slaughter declined by 675,000 head at 2.9 million head . As a result , the decline in cow numbers was more a function of tight supplies of replacement heifers than an intentional contraction .
Evaluating beef cow slaughter as a percentage of the cow herd indicates a cow-calf segment that is holding back cows at a pace that should lend to stabilization . The culling rate during the fourth quarter was at 10.1 % on an annualized basis , compared to a 20-year average of 11 %. As drought conditions have allowed , producers have become more forgiving with culling rates , keeping more old and open cows for the prospect of getting one additional higher-priced calf . This is expected to remain the pattern in 2025 , although regional drought patterns may be a limiting factor .
The other side of the cow herd expansion-contraction equation is heifer retention . In total , the industry did not retain heifers in a large way in 2024 as beef replacement heifer inventories edged lower by 46,000 head to a new record low in
2025 . Still , this narrow decline compared to the decline in beef cow numbers indicates an industry seeking stabilization with heifer retention as well .
Heifer placements into feedyards and movement through auction barns in the second half of 2024 were lower than recent years but also not so low as to suggest aggressive heifer retention . Rather , the trends suggest producers on average retaining enough heifers to more or less stabilize the herd . During the first half of 2025 , some heifers may still be diverted back to the replacement system and exposed to a bull . Otherwise , the industry will wait to see how many 2025-born heifers are retained this fall .
The market incentive for expansion is clear with calf prices more than doubling since the cycle low . However , the multiple headwinds including interest rates and high costs , labor and age of producer , have kept expansion elusive for now and favor a slower rebuild when it does occur , especially compared to the record-fast expansion in the last cycle .
Bottom line : Adding together the reduced cow culling pattern with a modest increase in heifer retention paints a picture of a beef cow herd seeking stabilization . CattleFax currently anticipates 2025 to be the cycle low for beef cow numbers with a small increase into 2026 . Even if a slight decline is noted into 2026 , the message is the same — the cow herd appears to be transitioning towards stabilization . www . NCBA . org NATIONAL CATTLEMEN 19