WEATHER UPDATE
ODDS FAVOR A CHANGE IN HOW WE THINK ABOUT WEATHER
By Matt Makens Atmospheric Scientist
Now that we have all had some time to reflect on our recent meeting in San Antonio , I typically compile a list of common questions I was asked during CattleCon to address in this issue of National Cattlemen . Rather than specific questions , I will take a generally themed approach this year .
There were the usual questions like , “ Is the 90 days after the fog we get rain true ?” and , “ How cold will February and March be for calving ?” Aside from those usual questions , there were two camps of thought this year . First , there were questions regarding the longrange weather outlook , say the years ahead ( part of a broader discussion on herd rebuilding ). Second , many folks were interested in the timing of their controlled burns this spring . I discussed probabilities of the occurrences in my answers . Today , those thoughts led me to write about a concept — probabilities — that I presented during this year ’ s CattleFax Outlook Session during CattleCon .
You may have noticed my migration toward probability-based forecasts rather than showing you the averagecondition maps commonly used . Although this has always been how my brain views weather , I have slowly integrated the change publicly because it is a different way of thinking about outcomes than you are used to in terms of weather , but it is not new in how you think about your operations .
Let me give you a quick analogy . You have 50 calves that will hit the market soon . How many of you will say , “ I want the average price ” versus “ I want to time the market and hit it at a high ?” Another analogy is drought is approaching , and your operation will need 200 tons of hay to supplement . Do you say , “ I will buy , whatever the price is ,” or “ I want to time the market and buy as cheaply as possible ?” We live in an industry operating on margins — lows and highs can and should apply to weather outlooks , too . My approach to weather is timing the swings and how far each swing may take us . An average one-size-fits-all approach is not the best approach in weather or cattle .
So , back to the themed questions . To those trying to burn now , you need it timed so you have good rain coming after the fire , so we turn to probabilities . How many chances for rain will you have the rest of March ? How probable is it you ’ ll get 0.10 ” versus 0.50 ”? These are key questions data can answer , and I sent dozens of emails to those who have or are still trying to burn .
As we turn to the long-range outlooks , probabilities apply to my forecasts here , too . For one example , how likely are you to receive 120 % of your average precipitation from this summer ’ s monsoon ? This will be a critical stocking rate question for those in the South /
Southwest / West where the drought has grown quickly since last year . In any location , by using a probability-based approach , you can get a sense of the weather ’ s volatility and give yourself some advantage by running additional or fewer head depending on the risk .
As we look at the trends through 2025 , there are some key ‘ players ’ to consider . The speed at which the current La Niña event fades introduces uncertainties this spring — for example , how quickly some regions dry out . The strength of the monsoon for Mexico and the Southwest is another source of uncertainty , especially for downstream impacts on the Corn Belt . Then , the emergence of La Niña or El Niño next fall always introduces some wild volatility to long-range weather outlooks — do the Northwestern producers get moisture in time for winter grazing ? Perhaps you must start feeding early , knowing the grass cannot sustain you through the season . Or , you use this to know hay could jump in price . Like in cattle markets , the sooner we think of weather as a probability and its highs / lows , the better .
For this summer , it all comes down to the monsoon . Probabilities suggest a stronger one this year compared to last . From that , downstream ripple effects impact the corn crop and how drought expands across the Northwest , the Northern Plains and the Southern Plains . It is stacking up to be a year where this industry needs very well-timed moisture to keep optimism high ; La Niña appears to be the main driver , which portends drought impacts on cattle . For the South , I can see early summer moisture in eastern and southern Texas , which then moves west . This will flip the fastest drought growth from one side of the state to the other throughout the summer . The summer will also bring the year ’ s hurricane season — probabilities for an active season increase due to a La Niña pattern .
At this point , you may ask me one final question , “ What creates the probabilities shown ?” Therein lies the “ secret sauce ” that makes my products unique . In the long and the short of it , I recreate history . Historical patterns are a method — called analogs . I also account for how computer models created forecasts in the past and noted where they “ went wrong .” Based on their historical performance , I then apply corrective measures to those models in today ’ s environment . Every forecast gets verified , my biases / errors are identified , and then my method is adjusted to account for the errors as I produce the next forecast .
So , the next time we run into one another , please ask your questions . Bring a pen and your red books , I ’ ll have some probabilities ready to share .
20 MARCH 2025 www . NCBA . org