LA NIÑA ’ S IMPACT HAS ALREADY BEEN SEEN , AND IT CONTINUES
By Matt Makens Atmospheric Scientist
Several factors impacting the industry in the past few months can be attributed , at least partially , to a developing La Niña . Of these , increased hurricane activity and drought growth are perhaps the biggest effects . Calling out those two elements is not to take away from the wildfires impacting producers in the West , but it is unfair to attribute those to La Niña .
In late September , Hurricane Helene delivered deadly flooding to the Southeast . When combining all elements of that storm , this was the strongest hurricane to strike this particular region in the nation ’ s history . Catastrophic damage extended well away from the coast and into producer areas . In addition to cattle and the infrastructure supporting the beef industry , agricultural losses included cotton , pecans and peanuts . Helene was the fourth landfalling hurricane on the U . S . Gulf Coast this season , following Francine in early September , Debby in August , and Beryl in July .
Our producers in Florida know what hit next , Milton . Hurricane Milton became one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded as it spun through the Gulf of Mexico . Thankfully , the storm weakened to a Category 3 before landfall . Milton resulted in extensive flooding and damage across Florida ’ s peninsula .
From too much rainfall , we turn to a historically dry period elsewhere . Much of the country experienced a drier-than-normal September and October . This may have benefited finishing the corn and harvest , but this quickly degraded rangeland , pastures and newly planted forages , including winter wheat . By mid-October , more than 50 % of our cattle , alfalfa and hay areas were in drought compared to less than 10 % at the start of summer .
Maryland , Montana , New Mexico , North Dakota , Ohio , Oklahoma , South Dakota , Texas , West Virginia and Wyoming had the highest levels of drought going into fall . During this time , the impact on our feed intensified , and a third to a half of the nation ’ s rangeland and pastures were reported in very poor to poor condition .
Out of these recent domestic events , hurricane season may end soon , but the drought-spreading weather associated with La Niña and neutral patterns will continue this winter . This winter ’ s hardest-hitting drought will be on the Central to Southern Plains and the Southwest .
The impact of La Niña on the global pattern will further the drought ’ s grip on the beef industry . Out of South America , Argentina sees expanded drought , as do parts of Brazil ’ s corn and soybean regions . Fall heat exacerbated drought in parts of Mexico leading into a dry winter outlook . Drier conditions in Canada benefited harvest , but there may be a concern for soil moisture for late-season forages and next spring ’ s pasture if this year ’ s La Niña event is too weak .
The strength of a La Niña event is critical to moisture availability for many parts of the globe , not just here at home . As written in previous publications , a neutral or weak La Niña is the driest across North America . To create potential moisture avenues for northern producers and improve their range conditions by next spring , we need to see a moderate to strong La Niña event unfold ; however , that appears unlikely this time .
Limited moisture across most cattle areas is a theme in the regional specifics . The implication is higher drought levels nationally by spring , poorer winter grazing conditions for the Central to Southern Plains and the Southwest , and , in some cases , a colder and snowier winter versus last year ’ s for the North . Winter Conditions for 2024-2025
Northwest : We now have a better setup for a colder and wetter winter than last year . However , the amount of moisture is subject to how strong this La Niña event becomes . Historically , the wettest periods come from strong La Niñas , which is not likely to be the case this year . Still , times will be wetter than average , particularly in January and February . Temperature anomalies will be warmest early in the season , then turning colder throughout .
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