WEATHER UPDATE
West : Although some atmospheric river events will increase moisture in shorter periods , the season is drier than average , especially to the south . This will go along with warmer-thannormal conditions . This is a region in which La Niña , or El Niño , has a low impact during the winter .
Southwest : Temperatures will run warmer than normal for the season , especially in the South . In most historical cases , the region has been dry except for northwestern / northcentral Colorado and northern Utah . In a few cases , moisture was able to reach New Mexico , but the odds of that are low so a mostly dry region for the season is expected .
Northern Rockies : La Niña years tend to increase snow production , not just in the mountains but also on the Plains . This moisture will go a long way in helping us start the growing season next year . Temperatures will also be more wintry than last year , with colder-than-average months ahead .
South : In most cases , between neutral patterns and any variety of La Niña , this region can struggle with winter-time precipitation . The question then becomes how quickly moisture can return to eastern areas later in the period through the spring . With a weak enough La Niña , we can see that happen quickly . For western areas , odds indicate a mostly dry winter and early spring . This region likely has the most considerable growth of drought this winter .
Upper Midwest : This winter will be colder than last year . Expect colder temperature anomalies throughout the season into very early spring . Moisture is more likely in January and February than in December . March and April may also see frequent moisture based on the current trend in La Niña .
Ohio Valley : Another region where the strength of a La Niña event can indicate moisture or drought . In this case , many needing moisture would prefer a stronger La Niña than expected . Yet , moisture is still probable during the season , particularly later in the season , stretching into spring . Temperatures , like precipitation , depend on the strength of this La Niña event and will be near normal with the coldest anomalies north and warmest anomalies south .
Southeast : Moisture can drift into northern areas more frequently than in the south . The odds for moisture increase late in the period through the spring . Historically , this winter will remain quite dry for Florida , and computer modeling agrees . Temperatures will be warmer than average .
Northeast : Expect a more active winter this year with more frequent snow and colder temperatures . Early periods may be warmer than average but look for colder and colder anomalies later in the season .
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