THE LA NIÑA LOTTERY: THE WEATHER IMPACTING YOUR WINTER GRAZING STRATEGY
By Matt Makens Atmospheric Scientist
“ Where is my rain? I’ m getting nervous.” That is something I hear every fall, and this year is no different. Many of you are looking at winter forage and asking whether it is time to stock up on hay. Unfortunately, drought conditions have been spreading this fall, and there is a clear reason why: La Niña is back. It is the fifth time in the past six years we have seen this type of pattern return.
La Niña refers to cooler-than-average water temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean, which shift global storm tracks and lead to ripple effects across North America. The most common result in La Niña’ s case is drought expansion across most production areas outside of the Pacific Northwest and Midwest / Great Lakes. But here is where it gets interesting for planning: La Niña does not affect all regions equally.
Each La Niña is a little different. Ocean temperatures shift, and other weather patterns may strengthen or weaken the usual La Niña effects in your area. For this winter, there is a greater than 70 % chance we will experience a weak La Niña event. The odds we drift into a strong event are less than 10 %. Historically, a stronger event greatly reduces winter-time precipitation the most for the central and southern beef cattle regions. Weaker events historically are still dry for the same areas, but not of the same magnitude. So, what does this mean for your operation heading into 2026? Let us break it down by scenario. The Weak La Niña Scenario( Most Likely: > 70 % Probability) In a weak La Niña winter, here is what history tells us to expect: Dry zones: The Central and Southern U. S. from Southern California through Central Texas, and Nebraska southward into Mexico typically receives less than 80 % of their normal precipitation due to fewer storm chances than usual.
Near-normal zones: The Northwest, Midwest and East generally see closer-to-average precipitation during weak events.
Wet zones: California’ s Sierras, Idaho, Montana and northern Wyoming tend to catch extra moisture, often receiving at least 110 % of their normal precipitation.
The Southeast: Even weak La Niña events tend to run drier than normal across this region. The Strong La Niña Wild Card(< 10 % Probability) While unlikely, a strong La Niña event would amplify these patterns significantly:
Central and southern dry zones would deteriorate further, seeing less than 60 % normal precipitation with dryness extending north into the Dakotas and Canada. Pacific Northwest moisture would surge, potentially upwards of at least 140 % of normal from Wyoming’ s mountains to the Pacific Coast. Eastern corn belt regions would see increased precipitation. Southeast drought would intensify considerably.
18 NOVEMBER 2025 www. NCBA. org