WEATHER UPDATE

What About Neutral Conditions?

This is an important question, as data suggest a brief La Niña event this time meaning we should also account for neutral conditions for a part, if not most, of the next six months. La Niña’ s dryness does not shift much if you are in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas or Nebraska as ENSO( El Niño- Southern Oscillation)-neutral winters historically still run drier than average for the Southern Plains to Central Great Plains. The western and eastern U. S. would see near-normal moisture in this scenario. Since 1950, ENSO-neutral conditions have not changed where, overall, the moisture falls and where drought is a concern but has reduced the extreme cases.

Whether it is a weak La Niña, a rare strong one, or even a stall in neutral, the message remains roughly the same for the Central and Southern Plains— plan for less frequent moisture this winter. The only pattern that would flip this forecast entirely would be El Niño, but that is not in the cards until possibly late 2026. The drought expansion we have seen since summer is confirmation that La Niña is already influencing our weather.

Beyond precipitation, producers across the Northern Plains, Midwest and periodically into the South should prepare

for increased cold exposure this winter. La Niña’ s typical atmospheric pattern drives Arctic air southward from Canada more frequently. Based on similar historical patterns, many regions can expect seven or more additional days below freezing this winter compared to average. Cold risk remains elevated with all three scenarios, though a strong La Niña would add another wrinkle— greater temperature volatility with sharper swings between hotter-hot days and colder-cold periods.

For planning considerations and recommendations, we have had these scenarios play out frequently in the past few years. 2020-2023 had strong La Niña winters, 2024-2025 was an ENSOneutral winter although La Niña did peak in December at a weak threshold. You remember how those played out from hay prices, water use, to some tough pasture calls.

As a final risk-management tool, keep insurance options like Pasture, Rangeland and Forage on your radar; there will be strong two-month placement opportunities in 2026. However, avoid blanket coverage and stay alert for a pattern flip.

While we cannot control the weather lottery, we can control how we prepare. And yes, I’ m still here to answer the most popular question,“ Where’ s my rain?”

The Environmental Stewardship Award showcases cattle producers’ commitment to protecting the environment and improving fish and wildlife habitats while operating profitable cattle operations.

Help us highlight the great work being done on cattle farms and ranches across the country by nominating your neighbor.

NOMINATIONS ARE DUE February 16, 2026

Nominations can be submitted by any organization, group, or individual on behalf of a U. S. cattle producer. Contact your state affiliate, ESAP sponsor representative, or NCBA staff member for more information on submitting an application.

Sponsored by

Learn more at environmentalstewardship. org www. NCBA. org NATIONAL CATTLEMEN 19